Data highlights:
- Average spot rates from Far East to US now fallen below average long term contract rates.
- Far East to US West Coast freight rates on 20 March 2025:
- Average spot rate - USD 2 680 per FEU (40ft container)
- Average long term rate – USD 2 815 per FEU
- Far East to US East Coast freight rates on 20 March 2025:
- Average spot rate – USD 3 710 per FEU
- Average long term rate – USD 3 885 per FEU
- Far East to US West Coast freight rates on 20 March 2025:
- Average spot rates from Far East to US East Coast down 46% since 1 January
- Average spot rates from Far East to US West Coast down 54% since 1 January
- Average spot rates from Far East to North Europe down 50% since 1 January at USD 2 425 per FEU
- Average spot rates from Far East to Mediterranean down 40% since 1 January at USD 3 480 per FEU
- Average spot rates from North Europe to US East Coast down 18% since 1 January at USD 2 195 per FEU
Xeneta analyst insight – Far East to US spot rates fall below long term contract rates
Peter Sand, Xeneta Chief Analyst:
“Spot rates falling below long-term contract rates on major fronthauls from the Far East to US West Coast and US East Coast is another clear sign of a weakening market in 2025.
"The last time spot rates fell below long term rates on the fronthauls from the Far East to US was August 2023 following the massive post-covid market collapse.
“This development is perfect timing for US shippers who are deep into negotiating new contracts starting on 1 May. If shippers have this data to hand during negotiations, they will be pushing hard for further freight rate reductions.
“This is a brilliant opportunity for shippers to keep the heat on carriers and freight forwarders and shows how dramatically and quickly the tables can turn in ocean container shipping.
“If we also see weakening demand as shippers draw down on higher stock inventories following frontloading of imports in 2024 and early 2025, then spot rates could fall even further.
“Given the massive uncertainty surrounding the US trade policy towards tariffs and proposals for port fees targeted at Chinese ships and carriers, shippers will seize any opportunity to lower their overall import costs during freight rate negotiations.”
Xeneta analyst insight – escalation in US missile strikes on Houthi Militia in Yemen
Peter Sand, Xeneta Chief Analyst:
“Escalation in military action by the US against Houthi militia may signal the beginning of the end-game in the Red Sea crisis, but it makes a largescale return of container ships to the region less likely in the short term.
"Ships will continue to sail around the Cape of Good Hope and spot rates remain elevated on major fronthauls out of the Far East compared to pre-Red Sea crisis, despite falling since 1 January.
“While a return to the Red Sea is unlikely in the near future, the time is now for shippers to put plans in place. For example, they need to know which elements of their freight contracts relate to Red Sea disruption so they can be easily removed when the time comes.
“If the terms are vague or labelled ‘peak season surcharges’, carriers will take advantage and continue to impose them after their ships begin sailing through the Red Sea again.
“Profitability will become hugely challenging for carriers so they will adopt all manner of tactics to achieve it, whether that is imposing surcharges they are not fully eligible to or idling ships.”
Ends
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Xeneta’s Media Contacts:
Philip Hennessey
Director of External Communications
Xeneta
+44 7830 021808
press@xeneta.com
