The Xeneta Newsfeed

The latest news updates from across the ocean and air freight shipping markets.

Media requests for further information or interviews should be sent to press@xeneta.com or contact Philip Hennessey, Director of Communications (UK based), on +44 7830 021808.

To read the latest Xeneta press releases click here.

UPDATE: Trump vow on new trade war sends shockwaves through supply chain, importers scramble to move up orders

Wednesday, 6 November 2024

CNBC - Peter Sand, chief shipping analyst at Xeneta, tells CNBC that shippers will be fearing more of the same with this latest tariff threat.

“Shipping is a global industry feeding on international trade, so another Trump presidency is a step in the wrong direction,” said Sand. “The knee-jerk reaction from U.S. shippers will be to frontload imports before Trump is able to impose his new tariffs.”

Read the full story here.

UPDATE: Trump Presidency will reignite US-China trade war and threaten a spike in ocean container shipping markets as businesses rush imports ahead of higher tariffs

Wednesday, 6 Noveber 2024

Xeneta - Donald Trump’s victory in the US Presidential Election is ‘a step in the wrong direction’ for international trade as importers fear another spike in ocean container shipping freight rates.

Trump has vowed blanket tariffs of up to 20% on all imports into the US and additional tariffs of 60% to 100% on goods from China. 

Peter Sand, Xeneta Chief Analyst, said: “Shipping is a global industry feeding on international trade, so another Trump Presidency is a step in the wrong direction.

“The knee-jerk reaction from US shippers will be to frontload imports before Trump is able to impose his new tariffs. Back in 2018, the tariff on Chinese imports was 25%, now it is increasing up to 100% so the incentive to frontload is even greater.

“If you have warehouse space and the goods to ship, frontloading imports is the simplest way to manage this risk in the short term – but it will bring its own problems. A sudden increase in demand on major trade lanes into the US when ocean supply chains are already under pressure due to disruption in the Red Sea will place upward pressure on freight rates."

Read the full story here.

UPDATE: European importers should not be spooked by ocean container carriers’ desperate efforts to drive up freight rates

Thursday, 31 October 2024

Xeneta - Ocean container carriers are desperately trying to push spot freight rates up in early November to halt the market decline and strengthen their hand during negotiations with European shippers for new long-term contracts.

Latest data from Xeneta – the leading ocean and air freight rate intelligence platform – shows average spot rates on the major fronthaul trades from the Far East to North Europe and the Mediterranean are set to increase on 1 November between 15-25%.

Peter Sand, Xeneta Chief Analyst, said: “European shippers could be spooked by the spot rate hike in early November, but they should not be.

“Carriers are desperate to keep the spot market elevated and halt the recent heavy declines. It is clear there is still volatility in ocean supply chains and carriers will point to the ongoing impact of conflict in the Red Sea, but the fundamental direction of the market is downward and the November rate increase is unlikely to stick for too long.”

Read the full story here.

UPDATE: Market maturity navigates disruptions and puts air cargo on ‘final approach’ to double-digit demand growth in 2024

Thursday, 31 October 2024

Xeneta - Not even zero growth in November and December can disrupt the global air cargo market from landing a year of unexpected double-digit demand growth in 2024. Healthy volumes of +11% in October and spot rates up +19% year-on-year reflected the growing maturity and balance among buyers and sellers of air cargo capacity, according to the latest market data by Xeneta.

Niall van de Wouw, Xeneta’s Chief Airfreight Officer, said: “The frequency and diversity of ‘storms’ coming the way of the air cargo industry in 2024 mean this year could have been quite messy, but the industry has found a way to navigate these challenges.

"This shows the prep work has paid off as well as the flexibility shown in the industry. We see more emphasis on maintaining relationships than squeezing every last dime of revenue.”  

Read the full story here.

UPDATE: U.S. - Mexico cross-border trucking traffic hits a record ahead of election

Thursday, 25 October 2024

CNBC - Cross-border truck transits between Mexico and the United States are at a historic high at a time when tariffs and trade policy are a focal point in the U.S. election.

Peter Sand, chief analyst for ocean freight rate benchmarking and intelligence platform Xeneta, told CNBC the growth in demand for containers shipping imports from China into Mexico in the first half of 2024 further fueled suspicions it has become a legal “back door” into the U.S. for trade tariff evasion.

“This route has grown increasingly popular over the past year-and-a-half,”

Read the full story here.

UPDATE: Xeneta Summit - Shipping giants reinforce confidence in Gemini alliance service reliability ambitions

Friday, 18 October 2024

Xeneta - The two men leading Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk into the new Gemini Cooperation joined together on stage at the Xeneta Summit in Amsterdam yesterday to reinforce their confidence in the new alliance achieving its ambition of 90% service reliability.

The Gemini Cooperation, which comprises the two ocean container shipping giants, will begin operating on 1 February next year, with a new hub and spoke approach of mainliner and transshipment services designed to increase reliability.

Rolf Habben Jansen, CEO of Hapag-Lloyd, and Kenni Skotte, Vice President and Head of Ocean Network Product at Maersk, took part in a panel discussion at the Xeneta Summit in Amsterdam on Thursday to answer questions on how Gemini can achieve its ambition of 90% service reliability when global reliability across all ocean container shipping carriers in the market stands at 53%.

Skotte said: “We are confident of the 90% number because we believe we can do it. But I recognize when people look at schedule reliability in the market today it’s hard to imagine.

“If we sit here again next year, we will have a very different discussion because by then we will have been able to prove that it works.”

Read the full story here.

UPDATE: Xeneta Summit - Machine learning to predict future ocean freight rate movements in new Market Outlook

Thursday, 17 October 2024

Xeneta.- Industry leaders at the Xeneta Summit in Amsterdam have been told ocean container shipping must harness the power of machine learning to protect supply chains in an increasingly complex and volatile market.

In a keynote speech today to announce Xeneta’s new in-platform Ocean Market Rate Outlook, Chief Product Officer Fabio Brocca explained how machine learning will transform the way freight is bought and sold by predicting market movements on the world’s major corridors up to six months into the future.

He said: “While nobody can predict Covid-19 or the Red Sea Crisis, procurement professionals are constantly making decisions based on their outlook for the next few quarters. When there is so much volatility and uncertainty across global supply chains, providing market guidance feels like an impossible task.

“The industry has come a long way using technology and data to improve every procurement process, but thanks to advancement in machine learning and AI we can now go even further by providing explainable predictions on how the market is likely to develop in the future.”

Read the full story here.

UPDATE: Transpacific spot market in decline despite record volumes – why and where next?

Thursday, 25 October 2024

Xeneta - The Transpacific trade in 2024 is a case in point on why you need a range of data and analysis to fully understand freight rate volatility and future market movements.

More specifically, how can Xeneta data explain why spot rates are falling at a time when demand is setting new records? And what does this mean for the coming months in the run up to tender season?

Read Peter Sand's latest blog here.

UPDATE: US port strike ends, leaving cargo backlog

Friday, 4 October 2024

Xeneta Chief Analyst Peter Sand told Reuters: "Remember that ships keep calling, so it's not just a matter of handling the ships already in line, but to work extra hard to run down the congestion before supply chains are rerunning,"

Read the full story here.

UPDATE: Agreement reached to end US port strike – but supply chains will take weeks to recover

Friday, 4 October 2024

Xeneta - Strike action at ports on the US East and Gulf Coast ended last night, Thursday, after a new wage agreement was reached – but a backlog of more than 40 ships waiting to offload billions of dollars of cargo means the pain is not yet over.

The International Longshoremen’s Association and the United States Maritime Alliance reached a tentative agreement on wages while also extending the Master Contract until 15 January 2025 to allow further negotiations, in particular around automation at ports.

Peter Sand, Xeneta Chief Analyst, said: “A prolonged crisis on this scale would have been toxic for global supply chains so the market is breathing a sigh of relief.

“Closing all ports on the US East Coast and Gulf Coast – even for just three days – comes with severe consequences. We must now wait to see how quickly the returning workers are able and willing to deal with the huge backlog of ships waiting to offload thousands of containers carrying billions of dollars of goods.”

Read the full story here.

UPDATE: US port strikes add to storm brewing in air freight market - but airlines and forwarders tempted by short-term gains in Q4 face a 'fine balancing act'

Wednesday, 2 October 2024

Xeneta - September’s global air cargo market lived up to analysts’ expectations, becoming the first month of 2024 not to report double-digit growth due to a strong year-on-year comparison, but demand still rose +9% on last year, according to the latest industry data from Xeneta.

Airlines and freight forwarders now face a ‘fine balancing act’ between protecting customer relationships and being tempted by short-term revenue gains offered by increasing market volatility, including this week’s strikes at ports on the US East Coast and Gulf Coast.

Niall van de Wouw, Xeneta Chief Airfreight Officer, said: “I have huge respect for the people who, on a day-to-day basis, are trying to make sense of these challenges and keep the world moving in an efficient manner. How much more can the market take, particularly when there’s so little visibility going forward?"

Read the full press release here.

UPDATE: Peter Sand discusses US port strikes on CNBC

Tuesday, 1 October 2024 

CNBC - Xeneta Chief Analyst Peter Sand says the drama of the U.S. port strikes is already being priced in, adding that the only real alternative to the closed ports is the longer, more expensive routing into the U.S. West Coast.

Watch the interview here.

UPDATE: US ports strike causes first shutdown in 50 years

Tuesday, 1 October 2024

BBC -Tens of thousands of dockworkers have gone on strike indefinitely at ports across much of the US, threatening significant trade and economic disruption ahead of the presidential election and the busy holiday shopping season.

"This is really a trigger event, one that will see dominoes fall over the coming months," said Peter Sand, chief analyst at ocean freight analytics firm Xeneta, warning that the stand-off also has the potential push up wider shipping costs.

That would hit consumers and businesses which tend to rely on so-called "just-in-time" supply chains for goods, he added.

Read the full story here.

UPDATE: Scaremongering port workers’ union issues misleading claim of $30,000 ocean freight container shipping rates as strike action begins on US East and Gulf Coast

Tuesday, 1 October 2024

Xeneta - The ILA confirmed the strike in an announcement yesterday, Monday, while at the same time claiming ocean container carriers are now charging USD 30 000 per container in a ‘whopping increase from USD 6 000 just a few weeks ago’.

Xeneta data – which is based on more than 450 million crowdsourced datapoints – shows the ILA claim is misleading. Average spot rates on the major fronthaul from the Far East to US East Coast stand at around USD 7 000 per FEU (40ft container) on 1 October. While average spot rates from North Europe to the US East Coast have increased 50% since the end of August, they are still only USD 2 800 per FEU.

Peter Sand, Xeneta Chief Analyst, said “The union is representing its members and clearly has grievances to raise, but muddying the waters with misinformation does nothing to help resolve the situation.

“More than 40% of containerized goods enter the US through the East and Gulf Coast so this strike will cause carnage across supply chains and damage the US economy. Now is the time for cool heads and diplomacy rather than scaremongering and fake news.”

Read the latest Xeneta press release here.

UPDATE: Freight rates rise as companies plan for costly US port strike

Sunday, 29 September 2024

Financial Times - US retailers, automakers and other businesses face ballooning freight rates as they make contingency plans for a strike that threatens to close nearly three dozen ports next week. 

As smaller businesses race to import goods before any strike, the average cost of shipping a 40ft container on short-term contracts from northern Europe to the US east coast rose 29 per cent to $2,376 since the end of August, according to data provider Xeneta. The cost of shipments from Asia, which can more easily be diverted to the west coast, has not risen over the same period, but this may change if the strikes go ahead, said Xeneta’s chief analyst Peter Sand.

Read the full story here.

UPDATE: Port strikes on US East Coast will cause major supply chain disruption into 2025, with Government intervention needed to prevent damage to economy

Wednesday, 25 September 2024

Xeneta - Ripple effects of strike action at ports on the US East and Gulf coasts will cause severe supply chain disruption into 2025, with analysts warning government intervention may be required to avoid major economic fallout.

A total of 36 ports are preparing for a complete stoppage if a new deal cannot be agreed with the International Longshoreman’s Association (ILA), which represents 85,000 port workers, before the 30 September deadline.

Peter Sand, Chief Analyst at Xeneta, said: “There are ships on the ocean right now carrying billions of dollars of cargo heading to ports on the US East and Gulf Coast. These ships cannot turn back and they cannot realistically re-route to the US West Coast. Some may divert to ports in Canada or even Mexico East Coast, but the vast majority will simply wait outside affected ports until the workers return.

“The consequences will be severe, not only through congestion at US ports, but importantly these ships will be delayed returning to the Far East for the next voyage. A strike lasting just one week will impact schedules for ships leaving the Far East on voyages to the US in late December and throughout January.”

Read the latest Xeneta press release here.

UPDATE: Maersk Shares Jump as US Port Strike Looms, Boosting Rates

Tuesday, 24 September 2024

Bloomberg - Peter Sand discussing the potential impact of looming strikes on the US East Coast and Gulf Coast.

“The consequences will be severe,” Peter Sand, chief shipping analyst at Xeneta, said in a Tuesday note on the possibility of a strike. There are already ships carrying “billions of dollars of cargo” on the sea heading for the US and “these ships can’t turn back and they can’t realistically re-route to the US west coast,” he said.

Read the full story here.

UPDATE: US Presidential Debate: Trump’s import tariffs are ‘history repeating’ and will cause a spike in ocean container shipping markets

Wednesday, 11 September 2024

Xeneta - Donald Trump’s proposed import tariffs would see the cost of shipping goods by ocean increase in a repeat of the market spike seen during his first term as US President.

Trump defended his trade policy during last night’s Presidential Debate, which includes blanket tariffs of up to 20% on all imports and additional tariffs of 60% to 100% on goods from China.

However, data released by Xeneta – the ocean freight rate intelligence platform – shows the last time Trump ramped up tariffs on China imports during the trade war in 2018, the ocean container shipping markets spiked more than 70%

Peter Sand, Xeneta Chief Analyst, said: “Raising barriers to trade is almost always a negative move. We saw the cost of shipping goods by ocean spike dramatically when Trump introduced tariffs back in 2018 and his latest proposals will simply be a case of history repeating.”

Read the full story here.

UPDATE: Dramatic increases in FEU and TEU ocean container market spreads – key considerations for shippers

Friday, 6 September 2024

Xeneta - Spiralling ocean container shipping freight rates dominate discussion in the wake of major events such as the Red Sea conflict – but beneath these easy-to-observe headline figures lie many layers of complex market dynamics and indirect pricing impacts.

One such market dynamic is the spread in cost between shipping an FEU (40ft shipping container) and a TEU (20ft shipping container), which has seen dramatic developments in 2024.

Peter Sand, Xeneta Chief Analyst, has looked at this important topic in the latest blog, using FEU and TEU data in the Xeneta platform.

On July 1, the FEU-TEU spread hit a 2024 peak of USD 2 354 on the Far East to Mediterranean trade. The peak on the Far East fronthaul to North Europe happened a little later on 15 July, reaching USD 3 596.

On 13 August, the difference between the spreads on these two trades reached USD 1 407, which is the highest level in almost two years.

Read the full blog here.

UPDATE: Summer provides perfect ‘warm up act’ as the global air cargo market heads towards hotly anticipated Q4 peak

Thursday, 5 September 2024

Xeneta - The global air cargo market’s hot summer of double-digit demand growth continued in August with average spot rates showing their largest year-on-year growth of +24%, according to the latest weekly analysis by Xeneta.

Global average air cargo spot rates of USD 2.68 per kg in August were boosted by continuing supply and demand imbalance. August's global cargo supply grew at its slowest ratio in 2024 to-date at 2% year-on-year, while global cargo demand continued its double-digit growth, rising +11%.

Niall van de Wouw, Xeneta Chief Airfreight Officer, said: “If you are not already a little bit nervous, I would recommend you get a little bit nervous for Q4 when you look at all the signals out there.”

Read the full press release here.

UPDATE: Threat of Strike This Fall Hangs Over U.S. Ports

Friday, 30 August 2024

Wall Street Journal - Efforts to avoid a walkout by dockworkers at some of the busiest seaports in the US are entering a crucial phase.

Union officials representing 45,000 workers at ports from Maine to Texas will meet for two days in New Jersey starting Wednesday to discuss wage demands and prepare to strike on Oct. 1.

UPDATE: Shipping chief warns of dangers of Trump presidency to trade

Sunday, 11 August 2024

Financial Times - Rising US economic nationalism threatens to undermine world trade whoever wins November’s race to the White House, with shipowners particularly concerned about Donald Trump’s protectionism, the head of the global industry body has warned.

“The world order has never been under such threat since before the second world war,” Guy Platten, secretary-general of the International Chamber of Shipping, told the Financial Times. “When we last did this, it didn’t work . . . Trade wars lead to war.”

The story in the FT also featured insight from Emily Stausbøll, Xeneta Senior Shipping Analyst, who addressed the impact geopolitical factors have had on shipper behavior in 2024.

She said: “US businesses still have the chaos of Covid-19 fresh in their minds. If front-loading of imports also helps to mitigate regional supply chain risks, such as potential strike action at ports on the US East and Gulf coasts, and new tariffs on Chinese goods, then you can understand why some US importers have taken this approach.

Read the full story here (subscription required)

UPDATE: Explosion at Ningbo-Zhoushan port in China raises further serious safety concerns in ocean container shipping

Friday, 9 August 2024

Xeneta - A major explosion has occurred on a container ship while berthed at the port of Ningbo-Zhoushan in China in another incident that raises serious safety concerns.

The incident took place today, Friday, with video footage showing a massive explosion onboard the YM Mobility. There are no reports of casualties.

The explosion in Ningbo follows other major incidents in 2024, including the collapse of Baltimore Bridge in March after it was struck by a container ship and an electrical fire onboard the Maersk Frankfurt during its maiden voyage through the Arabian Sea last month which claimed the life of one crewmember.

Peter Sand, Xeneta Chief Analyst, said: “This type of incident should never happen and is another example of how one failure in ocean container shipping can have catastrophic consequences.

“Had this explosion happened at sea rather than at berth in port then the crew and ship would have been in even more perilous danger.

“An investigation will take place and the industry must learn from it. Container ships are used to transport hazardous and potentially explosive cargo, so it is of paramount importance that robust safety measures are in place.”

Click here for the full story.

UPDATE: Another record-breaking month for container shipping demand from China to North America and North Europe, but signs volumes may have peaked

Wednesday, 7 August 2024

Xeneta - Ocean container shipping demand from China to North America and North Europe continued to break records in June as importers rushed to protect supply chains amid the global disruption caused by conflict in the Red Sea.

The latest data, released this week, shows 800 000 TEU (20ft equivalent container) were shipped from China to North Europe in June, which is the highest ever monthly figure on this trade (Source: Xeneta, Container Trades Statistics).

While the trade from China to North America did not set a new all-time high, it was still the highest volume of containers to have ever been shipped in the month of June at 1.36m TEU. This makes June 2024 the eighth highest month on record and is beaten only by the extraordinary volumes shipped at the height of Covid-19 pandemic disruption in late 2020 and 2021.

Peter Sand, Xeneta Chief Analyst, said: “Shippers wanted to protect supply chains and that has come with a heavy price tag. The massive volumes shipped in May and June contributed to the severe congestion seen at ports in Asia and the dramatic spike in rates.

“Those shippers who rushed imports may have spent far more than they wanted to, but they clearly felt it was a price worth paying to lower the level of risk in their supply chains later in the year. We have seen shippers importing Christmas goods as early as May because hindsight is a luxury they do not have – they needed to take immediate action.”

Click here for the full story.

UPDATE: Will air cargo's tailwinds hold out into peak season, as July marks a sixth consecutive month of rates increase?

Thursday, 1 August 2024

Xeneta - The quick recovery of July’s global IT outage produced no significant ongoing disruption to resurgent air cargo demand, with rates rising for a sixth consecutive month, according to the latest market analysis by Xeneta.     

Global average air cargo spot rates reached USD 2.66 per kg in July, +20% higher year-on-year.

This was again driven by strong global cargo demand growth. July volumes rose +13% year-on-year, thanks to buoyant e-commerce demand from Asia as well as the comparatively low demand base in the corresponding month in 2023. 

“For the air cargo market, it’s now all eyes on late August for the first signs of a proper peak season, which would be the cherry on top of the cake for airlines after such unexpected volumes and demand growth in the first seven months of the year,” said Niall van de Wouw, Chief Airfreight Officer at Xeneta.

“In July, had the IT outage taken longer to fix, we might have seen a slightly different outcome. However, once again, air cargo showed resilience, after seeming to have dodged another major disruption. Going into the peak time of the year, airlines might just be starting to think their tailwinds will hold out.”

Read the full story here.

UPDATE: Carriers limit box repositioning costs on backhaul Europe-Asia trade

Thursday, 1 August 2024

Journal of Commerce - The highly profitable Asia-Europe headhaul trade has allowed ocean carriers to focus on returning equipment to Asia to serve the strong early peak season demand and resist the collection of backhaul cargo at unattractive rates, according to the chief analyst for rate benchmarking platform Xeneta. 

Peter Sand told the Journal of Commerce that spot rates on the Europe-to-Asia trade lane have fallen sharply since topping out on Feb. 1, with the supply of containers brought in to cover fronthaul demand inevitably spilling over into the backhaul trades. 

“There is a clear mismatch between demand and supply, but what is keeping rates from falling through the floor is that carriers can turn down the picking up of boxes if they are outright loss-making,” Sand said. 

“Carriers are making good money on the front-haul and the back-haul is about limiting the losses of repositioning [containers], and there is a limit to what they will accept from shippers."

Read the full article here. 

UPDATE: Xeneta XSI®: Ocean container shipping market reaches a tipping point

Wednesday, 31 July 2024

Xeneta - The ocean container shipping market reached a tipping point in July, with long term rates on major fronthaul trades showing signs of life just as spiraling short term rates begin to soften.

The Xeneta Global XSI®, which covers all valid long term contracts in the market, edged up 2.5% in July to stand at 151.5 points.

More notably, the underlying XSI® sub-index for Far East Exports – which includes the world’s biggest fronthaul trades to Europe and the US - increased 12.6% in July to 178.8 points.

This coincides with short term rates on major trades from the Far East to the US and Europe beginning to soften in July from the massive increases seen over recent months.

Emily Stausbøll, Xeneta Senior Shipping Analyst, said: “Long term ocean container shipping rates remained subdued despite massive increases on the short term market in May and June – but that is starting to change.

“For example, while short term rates on the Far East to US West Coast trade increased more than 140% between 30 April and 1 July, the long term market increased by 20%. However, short term rates to the US West Coast have fallen by 12% since 1 July, just as the long term market shows signs of life.”

Read the full story here.

UPDATE: Bangladesh garment sector rocked by protest crackdown

Thursday, 25 July 2024

Financial Times - Bangladesh’s garments industry is reeling after authorities imposed a curfew and communications blackout as part of a deadly crackdown on student protesters, forcing factories to shut and disrupting shipments from the world’s second-largest clothing exporter.

The fallout from the protests will add to shipping costs that have already surged due to conflict in the Red Sea. Freight market tracker Xeneta said rates for exports from Bangladesh’s Chittagong port to northern Europe had tripled over the past year to $6,400 per 40ft shipping container.Bangladesh’s garments industry is reeling after authorities imposed a curfew and communications blackout as part of a deadly crackdown on student protesters, forcing factories to shut and disrupting shipments from the world’s second-largest clothing exporter.

Read the full story here (subscription required)

UPDATE: U.S. Importers Are Rushing Goods in Early Ahead of Shipping Disruptions

Tuesday, 23 July 2024

Wall Street Journal - U.S. retailers are pulling forward overseas orders to get ahead of deepening shipping disruptions, rising freight rates and looming geopolitical concerns. 

Import containers have been landing at American seaports in far bigger numbers than usual since the late spring, marking an early start to the annual peak shipping season leading into the fall. It also marks a big bet for importers who risk being stuck with excess inventories if consumers don’t pick up their spending. 

Read the full article here which includes Xeneta data (subscription required)

UPDATE: Wave of shipping inflation could complicate rate cuts, economists warn

Monday, 23 July 2024

Financial Times - Investors are underestimating the risk that surging shipping costs will push up inflation and slow the pace of interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank and Bank of England, economists have warned.

The cost of moving a 40ft container between Asia and northern Europe at short notice has more than doubled since April from $3,223 to $8,461, according to shipping data specialists Xeneta, following an intensification of Houthi rebel attacks on ships travelling through the Red Sea to the Suez Canal.

Read the full article here (subscription required)

UPDATE: Microsoft, CrowdStrike IT outage hits global supply chain, with air freight facing days or weeks to recover

Friday 18 July 2024

CNBC has used Xeneta data and insight to cover the impact of the IT failure on airfreight.

Read the full story here.

UPDATE: Global IT failure will add further pressure to already-strained air cargo supply chains

Friday 18 July 2024

Xeneta Chief Airfreight Officer Niall van de Wouw provides impact on the potential impact of the global IT failure.

Read the full update here.

UPDATE: Global IT failure potential for severe impact on ocean and air supply chains

Friday, 18 July 2024

Xeneta Senior Shipping Analyst Emily Stausbøll has spoken to Bloomberg's Brendan Murray on the global IT failure today.

This includes the Port of Rotterdam saying it expects some of the 3,000 firms based at the complex will be affected, while the Baltic Hub Container Terminal at Poland’s Gdansk docks is seeing problems “hindering the functioning of the terminal".

Stausbøll said: “IT failures have the potential to cause significant disruption at ports if ships are prevented from offloading and loading containers. There are also knock-on impacts across inland supply chains if truck and rail services are unable to pick up and drop off cargo at the port.

“Charleston Port on the US East Coast shut for two days in May due to a software failure and this saw port congestion increase by 200%. If the latest IT failure spreads across the world's port infrastructure it could cause severe issues.

“Port congestion has been a major problem during 2024. While it is now easing, there is no slack in the system and any disruption will push the needle back into the red.”

Airports across the world have also been heavily impacted by the IT failure.

Niall van de Wouw, Xeneta Chief Airfreight Officer, added: “Air supply chains are highly complex, so a global disruption of this scale could have a severe impact. Planes and cargo are not where they are supposed to be and it will take days or even weeks to fully resolve.”

UPDATE: Spiralling ocean container shipping market set to peak, but will not bring an end to shippers’ problems

Monday, 15 July 2024

The dramatic spike in the ocean freight container shipping market is reaching its peak as importers push back against spiralling spot rates.

Data released by Xeneta today, Monday, shows average spot rates from the Far East to US East Coast increased by 3.7% on 15 July to stand at USD 10 045 per FEU (40ft equivalent shipping container). Into the US West Coast, spot rates increased by 2.0% to stand at USD 8 045 per FEU.

While this means spot rates are up almost 150% on these trades since the end of April, the latest increases of 3.7% and 2.0% are far smaller compared to 1 July when rates rose by 22% into the US East Coast and 12% into the US West Coast.

Emily Stausbøll, Xeneta Senior Shipping Analyst, said: “Xeneta data shows some ocean container carriers are still pushing spot rate increases in mid-July, but, for the first time in a long time, some carriers are offering lower spot rates.

“Crucially, this suggests a growing level of available capacity in the market and shippers can once again start to play carriers off against each other - instead of feeling they need to pay whatever price they are offered to secure space. As the balance of negotiating power starts to swing back towards shippers, we should see spot rates start to come back down.”

Read the full story here.

UPDATE: Record-breaking demand for ocean container shipping adds to perfect storm in market

Wednesday, 10 July, 2024

Global demand for ocean freight container shipping hit an all-time record in May amid soaring spot rates and severe port congestion.

The 15.94m TEU (20-foot equivalent container) transported by ocean in May beats the previous record of 15.72 TEU set in May 2021, according to data released by Xeneta and Container Trades Statistics.

The record levels of demand in May brings year-to-date volumes to just under 74m TEU, which is an increase of 7.5% compared to the first five months of 2023.

Emily Stausbøll, Xeneta Senior Shipping Analyst, said: “More containerized goods are being shipped by ocean than ever before at a time when available capacity is impacted by diversions around Africa due to conflict in the Red Sea and severe port congestion in Asia and Europe.

“This is a perfect storm of pressure on ocean supply chains which has resulted in the chaos of recent months. In many respects it is impressive that global shipping networks have been able to transport this enormous volume of containers under such challenging circumstances.”

Read the full story here.

UPDATE: Xeneta and Keelvar look to revolutionize freight procurement with real-time benchmarking and sourcing optimization

Friday, 5 July 2024

Xeneta, the premier provider of ocean and air freight rate benchmarking and market analytics, together with Keelvar, a leader in intelligent sourcing optimization and automation, have announced an integration that is set to transform supply chain procurement.

This collaboration will create a seamless connection between Xeneta’s freight rate database and Keelvar’s advanced sourcing optimization platform, ensuring procurement professionals can make data-driven decisions with unparalleled accuracy and efficiency.

Thorsten Diephaus, VP Strategic Alliances at Xeneta, said: “This partnership empowers businesses to optimize their procurement strategies, achieve significant cost savings, and respond swiftly to market changes. Together, Xeneta and Keelvar are at the forefront of redefining supply chain management for the modern era.”

Read more here.

UPDATE: What can stop ocean freight container spot rates reaching pandemic levels?

Thursday, 4 July, 2024

As the dramatic spike in ocean freight container shipping spot rates continues into July, what needs to happen if the market is to avoid reaching the levels seen during the Covid-19 pandemic?

From a shipper perspective, they should keep their cool and refrain from pushing the panic button as we saw in the first four months of 2024 with the frontloading of imports – particularly into Europe. This increased demand ahead of the traditional Q3 peak season is one of the factors driving the market upwards.

From a carrier perspective, they need to do everything they can to ease port congestion and stop calling at the same transshipment hubs in Asia and Europe.

Read more of Chief Analyst Peter Sand's thoughts here.

UPDATE: Shein, Temu Are Swamping Airfreight Capacity, Sending Rates Soaring

Monday, 1 July, 2024

Niall van de Wouw, Xeneta Chief Airfreight Officer, has spoken to Paul Berger at Wall Street Journal on the rise of e-commerce out of China.

The huge volumes being shipped by online retailers Temu and Shein out of China and Hong Kong has seen air freight rates soar and businesses facing the prospect of fierce competition to secure space for their cargo during the peak season later this year.

van de Wouw said: "If you as a shipper have not arranged or dealt with your freight forwarder on how to navigate that time, I think you might be in for quite a ride.

"The e-commerce boom out of China has transformed the airfreight market in an incredibly short period of time.”

Read the full story here.

UPDATE: ‘It’s All Happening Again.’ The Supply Chain Is Under Strain.

Monday, 24 June, 2024

Peter Sand, Xeneta Chief Analyst, has spoken to Peter S Goodman at the New York Times for a feature looking into the global situation in ocean freight container shipping and whether we are in danger of repeating the same mistakes as during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Sand said: “It’s a very complex situation, and it appears open-ended. There is no clear solution in sight.”

Read the full story here.

UPDATE: Beware a potential flaw in index-linked ocean container shipping contracts

Wednesday, 19 June 2024

Index-linked contracts are becoming increasingly popular in ocean freight container shipping, but some contain a potential flaw that could cost shippers vast sums of money.

The problem arises when a shipper uses 40ft equivalent containers (FEU) to transport their goods but the contract with the service provider (carrier or freight forwarder) is linked to a 20ft equivalent container index (TEU).

Philip Hennessey, Xeneta External Communications Director, addressed this topic in a blog. He said: "It must be stressed that index-linked contracts are a fundamentally good idea. Not only do they offer greater financial visibility, they also help to build more trusting relationships between shippers and services providers – something of critical importance during black swan events.

"They also save time and resources by removing the need for constant renegotiations every time there is a turn in the market.

"But index-linked contracts only work if it suits both parties - there cannot be one winner and one loser.

"Therefore, it is imperative that these contracts are benchmarked against the appropriate index and the correct data is used."

Read the full blog here.

UPDATE: Air cargo contracts, how long should they last?

Monday, 17 June 2024

When negotiating air freight contracts, the constant question from shippers is how long they should last.

It is indeed a challenging question considering the big swings in air cargo rates due to recent market shocks, such as the e-commerce boom and conflict in the Red Sea region.

Wenwen Zhang, Xeneta Air Freight Analyst, addressed this topic in a blog. She said: "Considering the wide spread of spot share values in different markets around the globe, shippers should also look to adopt different procurement strategies for different lanes, especially for their top volume corridors, instead of putting everything into one basket.

"For instance, shippers with a large volume could lock into longer-term contracts for ex-Hong Kong lanes. Alternatively, they could agree short-term contracts to benefit from low rates if volume is low and erratic."

To read the blog click here.

XENETA RATE UPDATE: Spot rate growth slows but ocean container shipping market will remain extremely challenging.

Friday. 14 June 2024

Ocean freight container shipping spot rates are set to increase further, but there are signs the recent dramatic growth may be slowing.

The latest Xeneta data indicates spot rates on major trades out of the Far East will increase again on 15 June, but to a less dramatic extent than witnessed in May and early June.

Average spot rates from the Far East to US West Coast are set to increase by 4.8% on 15 June to stand at USD 6 178 per 40ft equivalent container (FEU). However, on 1 June, rates on this trade increased by 20%.

From the Far East into the US East Coast, rates are set to increase by 3.9% on 15 June to stand at USD 7 114 per FEU. Again, this is a far less dramatic jump than when rates increased by 15% on 1 June.

Peter Sand, Xeneta Chief Analyst, said: “Any sign of a slowing in the growth of spot rates will be welcomed by shippers, but this is an extremely challenging situation and it is likely to remain so.

“The market is still rising and some shippers are still facing the prospect of not being able to ship containers on existing long term contracts and having their cargo rolled.”

Average spot rates from the Far East to North Europe are set to increase by 10% on 15 June to reach USD 6357 per FEU. While less than the 20% jump on 1 June, it is still a significant mid-month increase and would be viewed as an extremely significant upwards market movement in isolation.

Into the Mediterranean, average spot rates from the Far East are set to increase by 7.2% on 1 June to USD 7 048 per FEU, which compares to a rise of 19% on 1 June.

Read the full story here.

UPDATE: Labor union strike threat raises fears of soaring freight rates and massive disruption at US East and Gulf Coast ports.

Friday, 14 June 2024

Threat of strike action at US East and Gulf Coast ports may see importers accelerate efforts to protect ocean supply chains in a vicious circle of disruption in ocean freight container shipping.

The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) announced on Monday that it has suspended negotiations with United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) over a new labor contract for workers at US East Coast and Gulf Coast ports. The existing agreement will expire on 30 September.

Peter Sand, Xeneta Chief Analyst, said: “We have already seen shippers frontload imports ahead of the traditional peak season in Q3 due to concerns over the continuing supply chain impacts from the conflict in the Red Sea. They may now accelerate this approach if there is a further risk of major disruption on the US East and Gulf Coasts later this year."

Read the full story here.

UPDATE: Anyone got a ship for an East-West service? Carriers scramble for tonnage.

Thursday, 13 June 2024

The Loadstar - Ocean carriers are “scrambling for any tonnage” to provide additional capacity on east-west services, but the tonnage providers are “taking advantage” as the cost of chartering vessels has recently risen rapidly.

Peter Sand, Xeneta Chief Analyst, said: “All carriers fight for the same ships – either you buy, or you charter – and they are all scrambling for tonnage now. There is big money to be made, at the expense of shippers who get only to pay more and more for deteriorating service levels.”

Read the full story here.

UPDATE: Labor union strike threat raises fears of soaring freight rates and massive disruption at US East and Gulf Coast ports.

Wednesday, 12 June 2024

Threat of strike action at US East and Gulf Coast ports may see importers accelerate efforts to protect ocean supply chains in a vicious circle of disruption in ocean freight container shipping.

The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) announced on Monday that it has suspended negotiations with United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) over a new labor contract for workers at US East Coast and Gulf Coast ports. The existing agreement will expire on 30 September.

Peter Sand, Xeneta Chief Analyst, said: “We have already seen shippers frontload imports ahead of the traditional peak season in Q3 due to concerns over the continuing supply chain impacts from the conflict in the Red Sea. They may now accelerate this approach if there is a further risk of major disruption on the US East and Gulf Coasts later this year.

“However, the frontloading of imports is part of a toxic cocktail of factors which has caused severe port congestion in Asia and Europe and the dramatic increases of more than USD 2 000 per FEU in ocean freight container shipping spot rates. It seems shippers are caught in a vicious circle where any action they take to protect their supply chains can result in making the situation worse.

Read the full story here.

UPDATE: Mid-term analysis puts global air cargo on pathway to double-digit growth in 2024

Wednesday, 5 June 2024

The global air cargo market is on a pathway to double-digit growth in volumes in 2024 after a +12% year-on-year jump in demand in May.

Despite conservative, low single digit industry growth forecasts at the end of last year, expectations have been boosted by six consecutive months of ‘quite extraordinary’ regional demand for cargo capacity.

Global air cargo spot rate in May consequently registered its second consecutive monthly growth, rising +9% year-on-year to $2.58 per kg, and up +5% pts month-on-month.

Niall van de Wouw, Xeneta Chief Airfreight Officer, said: "In terms of growth data, analysts sometimes say ‘once is an incident, twice is a coincidence, and three-times is a pattern’. In the world of air cargo, there’s an undeniable pattern emerging. We can’t use the word ‘surprising’ anymore. When we take a mid-term view of the market, with these kinds of numbers, we might be on track for double-digit growth for the year. It is now a possible scenario."

Read the full story here.

UPDATE: Christmas shipments rush risks deepening supply chain crisis, warns Maersk boss

Tuesday, 4 June 2024

Financial Times - A sudden rush to order shipments for the festive period risks deepening delays and congestion across the global supply chain, the chief executive of the world’s second-largest container shipping group has warned.

Vincent Clerc, head of AP Møller-Maersk, told the Financial Times that, after “an almost vertical” increase in shipping costs in the past month amid worsening congestion at ports in Asia and the Middle East, more customers could try to ship goods much earlier than normal.

To read the full article, which includes ocean freight rate data provided by Xeneta, click here.

UPDATE Shops rush for Christmas stock as shipping costs surge

Sunday, 2 June

BBC News - European retailers are rushing to place their Christmas orders early as soaring shipping costs and trade route disruption threaten holiday deliveries, experts say.

Peter Sand, Xeneta Chief Analyst, told the BBC: "The most straightforward way to protect supply chains is to ship as many of your goods as you can as quickly as possible.

UPDATE: Red Sea diversions, tariff risks send ocean shipping soaring

Friday, 31 May 2024

Reuters - Spiking ocean shipping rates, vessel backups at seaports and empty container shortages - issues that wreaked havoc on global trade during the COVID pandemic supply-chain crisis - are back as the industry enters its busy season.

Here is what Peter Sand, Xeneta Chief Analyst, told Reuters: "There is a cocktail of uncertainty and disruption across global ocean freight supply chains," said Peter Sand, chief analyst at pricing platform Xeneta.

"It is the speed and magnitude of this recent (rate) spike that has taken the market by surprise."

To read the full article click here.

UPDATE: Ocean freight container shipping market set to surpass Red Sea crisis peak and hit levels not seen since Covid-19 pandemic.

Thursday, 30 May 2024

Ocean freight container shipping spot rates will exceed the level seen at the height of the Red Sea crisis when the latest round of increases hit the market on 1 June, according to the latest data released by Xeneta today, Thursday.

Peter Sand, Xeneta Chief Analyst, said: “On 1 June, spot rates will reach a level we haven’t seen since 2022 when the Covid-19 pandemic was still wreaking chaos across ocean freight supply chains.

“Importers have learned lessons from the pandemic and the most straightforward way to protect supply chains is to ship as many of your goods as you can as quickly as possible. That is what we are seeing with some businesses telling us they are already shipping cargo for the Christmas period in May.

‘The early arrival of peak season is adding to the cocktail of uncertainty in the market. Back at the start of 2024 you could point to the Red Sea crisis as the root cause of spot rate increases, this time around it is far more nuanced."

To read the full update, including data on the 1 June spot rate increases, click here.

UPDATE: The mounting strains on global shipping

Tuesday, 28 May 2024

Robert Wright at the Financial Times has taken a deep dive into ocean freight shipping for the publication's latest Big Read feature.

The article features Xeneta data and insight from Chief Analyst Peter Sand, taking a closer look at global disruptions including conflict in the Red Sea, pirate attacks off Somalia, concerns over attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, port congestion in the Western Mediterranean and drought in the Panama Canal.

Read the full article here.

UPDATE: Trade Strains Boost Cargo Rates at Pace Recalling Covid ‘Chaos’

Monday, 27 May 2024

Emily Stausbøll, Xeneta Senior Shipping Analyst, has spoken to Bloomberg about the current situation in ocean freight shipping with capacity concerns and rapidly increasing spot rates.

She said: “This situation will bring back memories of the chaos and sky-rocketing ocean freight rates during the pandemic.

“Shippers have learned lessons from Covid-19 and some are bringing their imports forward, ahead of the peak season and the potential for a capacity squeeze.”

Read the full story here.

UPDATE: Shipping rates spike as businesses expect more Red Sea attacks

Sunday, 26 May 2024

Peter Sand, Xeneta Chief Analyst, has spoken to the Financial Times for a story about businesses shipping goods for the festive season far earlier than usual, in a sign of the far-reaching effects of disruption from attacks in the Red Sea.

Sand said some businesses had decided to “bring in Christmas goods if [they] can now because [they] may be short of capacity come the traditional peak season”.

“This is a direct response to the disruption coming about with the Houthi attacks,” he added. “Nobody is really sure of when it will go away.”

Read the full article here.

UPDATE: Sudden container crunch sends ocean freight rates soaring, setting off global trade alarm bells

Friday, 24 May 2024

Emily Stausbøll Xeneta Senior Shipping Analyst, has spoken to CNBC about the dramatic increases in ocean freight container shipping rates.

She said: “From the Far East into the U.S. West Coast, it is likely spot rates will surpass the level seen at the height of the Red Sea crisis earlier this year, which demonstrates how dramatic the recent increases have been.

“The bigger the spread between long and short term rates, the greater the risk of cargo being rolled, which we know is already happening."

To read the full article, which includes Xeneta data, click here.

UPDATE: Freight rates soar as Red Sea diversions Become a Norm

Thursday, 23 May 2024

Peter Sand, Xeneta Chief Analyst, has spoken to the Wall Street Journal about the recent spike in ocean freight shipping spot rates.

He said: “Big importers like Amazon and Walmart can wait it out with their orders for the rest of the year already in the pipeline with longer-term contracts locked earlier this year when freight rates were quite low,” said Peter Sand, chief analyst at shipping platform Xeneta.

“But with U.S. consumer demand staying strong and the Red Sea remaining inaccessible, transport costs with retailers no doubt continue going up.”

To read the full story, click here.

UPDATE: You're buying so much from Temu and Shein the air cargo industry can't keep up

Tuesday, 21 May 2024

Niall van de Wouw, Xeneta Chief Airfreight Officer, has spoken to Forbes about the enormous growth in e-commerce demand out of China.

“Nobody saw it coming last year,” van de Wouw told Forbes. “Their volumes could be the same order of magnitude as the largest freight forwarder in the world. Their volumes are crazy.”

"This is very unusual. I cannot recall one or two companies producing so much demand. That is the scary bit about exponential growth."

To read the full story, click here.

UPDATE: What is behind the sudden and dramatic increases in ocean freight container shipping rates?

Friday, 17 May 2024

Ocean freight container spot rates have risen sharply on the world’s top trades since the start of May, prompting speculation that the peak season has arrived early in 2024.

What is less clear are the reasons behind these dramatic rate movements.

Emily Stausbøll, Xeneta Senior Shipping Analyst, said: “There are numerous reasons for these rate increases, and the speed at which it has happened has caused nervousness in the market.

“Demand reached record levels in Q1 2024, up by 9.2% compared to Q1 2023, and comes at a time when the Red Sea situation is putting increased pressure on shipping capacity.

“But significantly, this is all taking place while the chaos of port congestion and lack of available capacity during the Covid-19 pandemic is still fresh in the memory of shippers.

“Lessons will have been learned from the pandemic. If shippers fear there is going to be a squeeze on capacity during the peak season in Q3 then they are going to start importing more goods now.

“If these increased volumes need to be moved on the spot market then it is going to put upwards pressure on rates."

To read more insight from Stausbøll click here.

UPDATE: Will new US tariffs on China imports be a case of history repeating? Businesses brace for increased supply chain costs.

Wednesday, 15 May 2024

Global supply chains are braced for further disruption and increasing costs after US President Joe Biden announced new tariffs on Chinese imports today, Tuesday.

The tariffs will be imposed on a wide range of Chinese imports including semi-conductors, batteries, EVs and solar cells. It also includes the introduction of a 25% tariff on ship-to-shore cranes from China.

Peter Sand, Chief Analyst at Xeneta, said: “The new tariffs under President Biden may be a case of history repeating. If so, businesses will be braced for increasing supply chain costs and ultimately it will be US consumers who pay for it.

“Back in 2018, we saw the US under President Trump impose a wide raft of tariffs on Chinese imports. China retaliated by imposing increasing tariffs of its own and this constant trading of blows saw ocean freight container shipping rates from China to the US West Coast increase by more than 160%.

“Rates began to fall away again towards the end of 2018 as the situation calmed, but they never returned to the same level, meaning a new status quo was established in the market at a higher cost level.”

To read more on this story and further quotes, click here.

UPDATE: Ocean carrier cocktail leaves a sour taste in shippers' mouths

Tuesday, 14 May 2024

Peter Sand, Xeneta Chief Analyst, has spoken to FreightWaves about the current ocean freight container market as carriers look to keep rates elevated.

Sand says the market right now contains equal shares of 'desperateness, defying gravity and frontloading'.

“As per desperateness: Xeneta data shows that the spot market average on key trades like Shanghai-Rotterdam, Ningbo-New York/New Jersey and Shenzhen-Los Angeles ports is going up, almost exclusively because the shippers who are paying more than the average (our Market High) are now paying much more ($900 per FEU) — whereas the larger, non-desperate shippers are only paying a little bit more ($50 in May) than what they did in the second half of April,” explained Sand.

Read the full story here.

UPDATE: Transpacific air cargo market set for busier summer than usual

Friday, 10 May 2024

The Transpacific air cargo market is heading into the traditionally slack summer months with spot rates elevated.

In the first week of May, average ocean container spot rates from Northeast Asia to the US West Coast were more than double the level 12 months earlier as disruption in the Red Sea continued to impact the world’s major trades.

Wenwen Zhang, Xeneta Air Freight Analyst,, said: "The question now is whether we will see the market follow the traditional pattern of cooling down over the summer or whether rates will remain high due to factors such as disruption to ocean freight services in the Red Sea, a still-resilient US economy and the e-commerce boom out of China."

Read more on Zhang's analysis here.

UPDATE: Congestion at Mediterranean ports is unintended consequence of Red Sea diversions

Thursday, 9 May 2024

New transshipment networks designed to mitigate the impact of diversions in the Red Sea are serving to create wider congestion at Mediterranean ports.

Ultra-large ships from the Far East are now offloading containers at western Mediterranean ports such as Barcelona, with smaller ships then transporting them to the final destinations at central and eastern Mediterranean ports. This means the larger ships can return immediately to the Far East rather than enter the Mediterranean Sea dead end created by the Suez Canal diversions.

As a result, the port of Barcelona handled 63% more container transshipments in March 2024 compared to 12 months ago – up from 94,000 TEU to 154,000 TEU.

Peter Sand, Xeneta Chief Analyst, said: "An increase in demand of this magnitude in a short space of time will inevitably lead to significant port disruption.

"The increasing use of transshipments is designed to improve the service for shippers – however it is coming at a cost."

Read more on this story here.

UPDATE: Peter Sand interview on BBC News regarding Mediterranean port disruption due to Red Sea conflict.

Thursday, 2 May 2024

Peter Sand, Xeneta Chief Analyst, spoke to BBC News this morning regarding congestion at Mediterranean ports due to conflict in the Red Sea.

With the majority of container ships being diverted around the Cape of Good Hope rather than transiting the Suez Canal, trades from the Far East to Mediterranean are most impacted in terms of sailing distance.

In an effort to limit the impact of these diversions on service schedules, ocean freight container carriers have been offloading containers at ports such as Barcelona, Tanger Med and Algeciras. These containers are then trans-shipped by smaller vessels to their final destination in the Eastern Mediterranean.

This has seen container imports at Barcelona increase by 48% in Q1 this year.

Sand told BBC News: “We have seen a really dramatic increase in the number of transited containers in a port like Barcelona so no wonder yard density is a problem.

“It’s clogging up and, the longer this goes on, different solutions must be found by the carriers, freight forwarders and also shippers because they feel the brunt of goods not turning up.

“We see more and more disruptions with higher frequency and many of them are from a geopolitical aspect taking global trade as hostage.”

You can watch Peter’s full interview on the BBC iPlayer here:

UPDATE: Xeneta Shipping Index (XSI®) reveals an array of market dynamics for long term contracts

Thursday, 2 May 2024

The latest data released by Xeneta today, Thursday, shows the Global XSI® (the average rate of all valid long term contracts in the market) remained fairly flat in April at 154.3 points, up by just 1.7% from March.

However, looking at sub-indices within this global figure reveals a dynamic market, with the XSI® for European Imports reaching 171.8 points, which is up by 9.2% from March and its biggest month-on-month increase since June 2022.

However, the XSI® sub-indices for US Imports fell by 9.4% in April to 150.6 points. And, while April’s Global XSI® figure represents a slight month-on-month uptick, it is still down by 50.1% compared to April 2023.

Emily Stausbøll, Xeneta Senior Shipping Analyst, said: “Given the spot market on trades such as Far East to Mediterranean is still up by more than 60% compared to 12 months ago, you would expect carriers to be pushing for even higher long term rates.

“The reason carriers aren’t demanding higher long term rates is because they are scared of overcapacity in an uncertain market.

"Conflict in the Red Sea has largely protected carriers from overcapacity so far in 2024 because diversions around the Cape of Good Hope require more ships to maintain service schedules.

“If the situation changes and we see a large-scale return of container ships to the Red Sea in the next 12 months, it will leave carriers severely exposed to the impact of overcapacity and spot market rates are likely to plummet.

“Yes, carriers want higher long term rates, but they also need to secure long term volumes. That is the fine line they are trying to walk, balancing risk and reward in such an unpredictable market."

UPDATE: Impact of Red Sea conflict on air cargo shows signs of easing

Wednesday, 1 May 2024

The impact of air cargo’s ‘black swan’ event – conflict in the Red Sea disrupting ocean freight services – showed signs of easing in April but volume growth still registered the fourth straight month of +11% increases in global air freight demand.

Alongside easing in global air freight demand, the injection of extra cargo capacity as airlines launched their summer schedules boosted supply growth by +5% year-on-year in April. This placed expected downward pressure on dynamic load factor, dropping from 62% in March to 59% in April.

Niall van de Wouw, Xeneta Chief Airfreight Officer, said: "We have clearly seen a push for airfreight capacity around the Indian subcontinent because of the Red Sea disruption, but this impact is easing as businesses which depend on ocean freight are now planning in longer lead times. So, we expect the recent surge in demand for airfreight in this region to lessen.”

Read van de Wouw's full monthly media update here.

UPDATE: Carbon Emissions Index (CEI) - no ocean freight container carrier is immune from the impact of Red Sea diversions.

Friday, 26 April 2024

Every carrier providing services between the Far East and Europe posted a higher CEI score in Q1 this year compared to Q4 2023 (before escalation of conflict).

Emily Stausbøll, Xeneta Market Analyst, said: “Ships are travelling longer distances at higher speeds to reach Europe from the Far East. There is no outcome to this scenario other than massive increases in carbon emissions, and that is exactly what we are seeing across all carriers on the CEI.”

Even ONE, which was the best performing carrier on the Far East to Mediterranean trade in both Q4 2023 and Q1 2024, saw its CEI score increase by 51%.

Stausbøll said: “CMA CGM has stated it will return to the Red Sea based on a risk assessment being carried out prior to every sailing.

“However, the majority of CMA CGM services are still diverting around Africa and, with recent reports of further attacks by Houthi militia, I don’t see a large-scale return of container ships transiting the Suez Canal any time soon.”

Read more on the latest Xeneta and Marine Benchmark Carbon Emissions Index report here.

The map below shows the location of CMA CGM operated ships on 26 April, with the majority diverting around Cape of Good Hope

UPDATE: Conflict in the Red Sea brings massive increases in carbon emissions to ocean freight shipping

Tuesday, 23 April 2024

The Xeneta and Marine Benchmark Carbon Emissions Index (CEI), which measures carbon emissions per ton of cargo transported across the world’s top 13 trades, hit 107.4 points in Q1 2024 - the highest it has been since the index began in Q1 2018.

For containers being shipped via ocean from the Far East to Mediterranean, the CEI reveals carbon emissions increased by 63% in Q1 2024 compared to Q4 2023. From the Far East into North Europe, carbon emissions increased by 23%.This is a direct result of conflict in the Red Sea region, which escalated in December and has seen most ocean freight container services avoid the Suez Canal due to the threat of attack by Houthi militia.

Emily Stausbøll, Xeneta Market Analyst, said: “We are all aware of the human and economic cost of war, but this data demonstrates there is also price to pay for the climate."

For more quotes and information read the Xeneta press release here.

For more data and insights on the carbon emissions increases read the latest Xeneta blog here.

UPDATE: Flooding causes disruption at Dubai Airport

Wednesday, 17 April 2024

Record rainfall in the UAE yesterday, Tuesday, has caused significant disruption at Dubai Airport with the potential for a knock-on impact on air freight services. Emirates airline has stated there will be delays to departures and arrivals at the airport due to the flooding.

Dubai airport has become a key hub for sea-air freight services after escalation of conflict in the Red Sea region in December last year made the Suez Canal out of bounds for many ocean freight container ships. Cargo from the Far East is now arriving at Jebel Ali port via ocean freight container services for onward travel via air from Dubai Airport to destinations in Europe and North America.

As a result, Dubai airport has seen demand for air freight more than double for outbound cargo to Europe in February and March compared to the same months in 2023.

Niall van de Wouw, Xeneta Chief Airfreight Officer, said:: “The conflict in the Red Sea has seen some shippers switch to sea-air services to protect their supply chains so disruption at Dubai Airport is the last thing they need right now.

“Flooding in Dubai also follows escalation in conflict between Iran and Israel over the weekend which saw airspace closures across the Middle East due to drone attacks and the seizure of the MSC Aries ocean freight container ship in the Strait of Hormuz, which is the gateway to the Arabian Gulf and Jebel Ali port.

“Disruption from rainfall is temporary, but the knock-on effects of flight cancellations and missed connections could be felt for one to two weeks because of the tight capacity situation that was already present prior to this downpour.”

UPDATE: Container ships continue to sail through Strait of Hormuz following seizure of MSC Aries by Iran

Monday, 15 April 2024

Ocean freight container ships are still sailing through the Strait of Hormuz despite the seizure of MSC Aries by Iran Revolutionary Guards in the early hours of Saturday, 13 April.

The map image below shows ocean freight container ships transiting the region today, Monday.

Peter Sand, Xeneta Chief Analyst, said: “The seizure of MSC Aries is a targeted attack by Iran on Israeli interests rather than a random hijacking

“There would be far more concern in the industry if this was the start of sustained and indiscriminate attacks, but that doesn’t appear to be the case and container ships are continuing to sail through the Strait of Hormuz.

“Unless the situation deteriorates further, the seizure of MSC Aries is unlikely to result in the kind of supply chain disruption we have witnessed recently in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden where almost any ship is at risk of attack by Houthi militia.

“However, this is another example of nation states attempting to weaponize international supply chains and that should be a cause for concern for us all."

Sand on the potential impact of the MSC Aries incident on ocean freight shipping rates:

“Whenever there is uncertainty in the market there is the potential for ocean freight shipping rates to increase – as we have seen most recently following the escalation of conflict in the Red Sea. However, oil prices have not spiked as some feared they may do, and ships are seemingly sailing through the Strait of Hormuz without issues, so any direct impact on rates may be limited.”

UPDATE: Container ship is seized by Iran Revolutionary Guards in Strait of Hormuz.

Saturday, 13 April 2024

The seizure of a container ship by Iran in the Strait of Hormuz this morning, Saturday, is 'extremely concerning' and threatens to put trade lanes in the Middle East at risk.

It has been reported that the MSC Aries was seized by Iran Revolutionary Guards 50 nautical miles (92 km) northeast of Fujairah, an area close to the Strait of Hormuz that forms the entrance to the Arabian Gulf.

The latest incident follows ongoing conflict in the Red Sea region - the gateway to the Suez Canal - which has seen ocean freight container ships avoiding the area due to missile attacks by Houthi militia.

Peter Sand, Xeneta Chief Analyst, said: "An already bad situation in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden has just got worse and could put ocean freight container imports and oil exports in the Middle East at risk.

"We don't yet know the full details of the incident in the Strait of Hormuz, but any widening of the conflict which has already resulted in huge disruption to ocean freight services in the Red Sea region would be extremely concerning.

"For example, Dubai is a regional hub for imports as well as sea-air corridors, with containers arriving by ocean via the Strait of Hormuz for onward travel by air to Europe and North America. If ships are impacted from sailing into the Arabian Gulf then the disruption would be considerable."

UPDATE: China to Mexico trade - further evidence of an enormous and sustained shift in ocean freight volumes.

Friday, 12 April 2024

New figures released today, Friday, reveal continued strong growth in container shipping volumes from China to Mexico - a trade which has been dubbed the ‘back door into the US’.

Accumulated volumes for January and February are up 50% compared to the first two months of 2023. This follows January figures which showed a 60% year-on-year increase. (source: Container Trades Statistics).

Volumes in February 2024 hit 92 257 TEU (20ft equivalent container), up from 65 308 TEU in February 2023.

While the latest accumulated figures indicate a slight slowing in growth, it still represents a significant volume shift and further evidence of businesses attempting to circumvent tariffs on goods imported from China into the US as part of a trade war between the nations.

Peter Sand, Xeneta Chief Analyst, said: “The latest figures for 2024 follow 35% annual growth in 2023 so these are not one-off months of increasing demand - it is an enormous and sustained shift.

"We have previously stated this is the fastest growing trade on planet Earth and that is still the case.

"Importing into the US via Mexico is far more difficult operationally, because it takes longer and it is more cumbersome.

"It shows how big the financial incentive must be for shippers to avoid US tariffs by importing via Mexico  that they are still willing to take on these operational delays and inefficiencies in their supply chains."

UPDATE: Baltimore bridge collapse has not triggered an increase in ocean freight shipping rates.

Monday, 8 April 2024

The collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore has caused supply chain disruption on the US East Coast but, so far, it has not seen an increase in ocean freight container shipping rates.

Data released today, Monday, by Xeneta, the ocean freight rate benchmarking and intelligence platform, reveals average spot rates from the Far East into the US North East Coast (including Baltimore) have fallen slightly (-1%) since the bridge collapse on 26 March to stand at USD 5421 per FEU (40ft shipping container).

When including other US East Coast ports such as New York / New Jersey, rates from the Far East have decreased by 3% in the same period.

Average spot rates from North Europe to the US North East Coast have fallen by a larger 8% in the same period to stand at USD 2357 per FEU. When including other US East Coast ports, rates have decreased by 4%.

Peter Sand, Xeneta Chief Analyst, said: “Spot rates have not reacted but that doesn’t mean shippers with cargo heading to Baltimore are not affected – on the contrary they are seeing containers arriving at ports they were not expecting.

“The majority of containers will now be handled at New York / New Jersey because many of the ships originally bound for Baltimore would have been stopping there anyway, which is perhaps why we haven’t seen an upwards impact on rates.

“Ocean freight container shipping rates may not have increased following the bridge collapse, but this incident is yet another problem for shippers to handle on top of all the other disruptions impacting supply chains at the moment, including the ongoing diversions in the Red Sea region and drought in the Panama Canal.”

For more insight and quotes on this story - as well the potential for further disruption on the US East Coast through labor disputes at ports click here.

UPDATE: Maersk to reinstate OC1 service transits through Panama Canal

Friday, 5 April 2024

Maersk has announced today, Friday, that it will re-introduce transits of the Panama Canal for the OC1 service, which had previously been withdrawn due to restrictions caused by low water levels.

The service will return to its pre-existing rotation effective from 10 May and see the phasing out of the “two-loop” set-up which utilized the Panama Rail connection.

Maersk has cited the upcoming rainy season and announcement by the Panama Canal Authority of additional daily transit slots as the basis for its decision.

Peter Sand, Xeneta Chief Analyst, said: “There is still a long way to go before this becomes a normal transit. There may be projections for increased rainfall but at the moment they are just that – projections. If water levels do not rise then it will be interesting to see how this plays out and whether Maersk can stick to this timeline.

“There is clearly a desire to return to transiting the Panama Canal because the current alternative using the rail connection involves lifting boxes twice, which takes time and is far less efficient.

“We are all at the mercy of climate change and weather phenomenon such as El Niño, so only time will tell if we can return to a semblance of normality in the Panama Canal.”

UPDATE: Third consecutive month of demand growth in airfreight market

Thursday, 4 April 2024

Global air cargo market demand rose +11% year-on-year for a third consecutive month in March as buoyant e-commerce volumes and concerns over the impact of conflict in the Red Sea region on ocean freight services delivered an unexpected first quarter bonus for forwarders and airlines.

Niall van de Wouw, Xeneta’s Chief Airfreight Officer, said: "While this latest monthly data should be balanced against the lower base recorded in the corresponding month of 2023, when we saw weakened global manufacturing activities, Q1 2024 has still seen a surprisingly busy airfreight market. The level of demand in the first quarter doesn’t indicate a market which is running out of steam so far."

For more on this story and quotes from Niall van de Wouw click here.

UPDATE: Francis Scott Key Bridge collapse in Baltimore

Tuesday, 26 March 2024

The Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore has collapsed after it was struck by a container ship at around 1.35am ET. Emergency responders have declared a mass casualty event and a multi-agency rescue operation is under way for people who entered the water.

The container ship involved is the Singapore-flagged Dali which can carry just under 10 000 TEU (20ft shipping containers) and was operating on a 2M alliance service between Baltimore and the Far East.

Emily Stausbøll, Xeneta Market Analyst, said: “This is a tragic and extremely serious mass casualty event and our thoughts are with all those people involved.

“The immediate focus is the rescue operation, but there will clearly be a highly-complex recovery phase and investigation to follow and we don't know what impact this will have on operations at the Port of Baltimore.

“While Baltimore is not one of the largest US East Coast ports, it still imports and exports more than one million containers each year so there is the potential for this to cause significant disruption to supply chains.

"Far East to US East Coast ocean freight services have already been impacted by drought in the Panama Canal and recent conflict in the Red Sea, which saw rates increase by 150%, so this latest incident will add to those concerns.

"It is likely other larger US East Coast ports such as neighbouring New York/New Jersey and Virginia can handle additional container imports if Baltimore is inaccessible, which may limit any impact on ocean freight shipping rates. However, there is only so much port capacity available and this will leave supply chains vulnerable to any further pressure.

"The question is how quickly ocean freight carriers can put diversions in place, particularly for vessels already en route to Baltimore or containers at the port waiting to be exported."

UPDATE: MEPC81 meeting takes place with global maritime supply chains in the grip of drought

Friday, 22 March 2024

UPDATE: Ocean freight container carriers report Q4 '23 operating losses

Wednesday, 20 March 2024

The average operating margins for the leading ocean freight container carriers (the nine largest companies reporting EBIT) fell to -3% in the final quarter of 2023 – the first time it has dropped below zero in five years. (source: Alphaliner)

Six out of the nine carriers reported operating losses in this period, including for the first time Hapag-Lloyd and ONE.

Peter Sand, Xeneta Chief Analyst, said: “Managing global container shipping supply chains in the modern world requires robust risk management, understanding what may be coming over the horizon and having contingency plans in place to react decisively. This applies to carriers, carrier CFOs and global shippers.

"The conflict in the Red Sea will certainly help carriers’ operating margins in Q1 this year, but the results from Q4 2023 demonstrate there are significant underlying financial challenges for carriers going forward.” 

UPDATE: How low will spot rates go from Far East into Europe?

Monday, 18 March 2024

Average spot rates from the Far East into Europe are continuing to slide from their Red Sea crisis peak – the question now is how low will they go?

Rates from the Far East into the Mediterranean hit a peak of USD 6020 per FEU on 16 January, but have since fallen back to USD 4370 on 18 March, including a drop of USD 450 on 1 March.

Similarly rates into North Europe have fallen from their Red Sea crisis peak of 4860 per FEU on 16 January to USD 3600 on 18 March including a drop of USD 400 on 1 March.

Rates on both trades are still significantly above their pre-Red Sea crisis level in mid-December, but they are currently only headed in one direction.

Emily Stausbøll, Xeneta Market Analyst, said: “Shippers are pushing back hard against additional costs related to the Red Sea, whether that is through surcharges or base rate increases. The question is how low will rates go while ships continue to sail around Africa.

"We have seen average spot rates fall gradually throughout March following a significant drop on the first day on the month and early data on the Xeneta platform suggests a further sizeable decrease on 1 April.

“We’re still a fair way off returning to pre-Red Sea crisis levels, but the data suggests there is still room for rates to fall further.

"The market will also be looking towards whether rates into the US from the Far East continue to follow the pattern of rates into Europe, as they have done since the escalation in the Red Sea."

UPDATE: Massive increase in container shipping imports from China into Mexico amid ongoing US trade war

Friday, 15 March 2024

Growth in demand for container shipping imports from China into Mexico in January 2024 increased by 60% compared to 12 months ago, further fuelling suspicions it has become a ‘back door into the US’.

This is now one of the strongest trade lanes in the world according to analysts at Xeneta, the leading ocean freight rate benchmarking and intelligence platform, with 117,000 TEU (20ft equivalent container) shipped in January of this year compared to 73,000 TEU in January 2023 (source: Container Trades Statistics).

Peter Sand, Xeneta Chief Analyst, said: “A sizeable proportion of the goods arriving in Mexico by ocean will likely be trucked into the US, which gives rise to the suspicion that the increase in trade we are witnessing is due to importers trying to circumvent US tariffs."

More more quotes read the full press release here.

UPDATE: Damaged underwater cables following Rubymar sinking will prove extremely difficult to repair

Tuesday, 12 March 2024

The US government has reported that the sinking of the Rubymar in the Red Sea region following a missile strike by Houthi militia has damaged underwater fiberoptic cables for internet services. 

Peter Sand, Xeneta Chief Analyst, said:"The real problem in a war risk area is that you cannot just repair the cable as you would anywhere else.

"You cannot send a cable repair ship to the Red Sea right now."

The damage to underwater communications infrastructure follows the recent attack on the vessel True Confidence which caused the death of three crew members.

Sand said: "Every company has its own risk assessment — which explains why some are still transiting the Red Sea. But a red line may now have been crossed with the casualties.

"I don't see a large-scale military response, I expect the naval forces in the area to continue to do a thorough investigation of targets that need to be dealt with to secure the safe passage of commercial ships."

UPDATE: New vessels add to carriers’ ocean freight overcapacity headache

Monday, 11 March 2024

In January and February there has been 449 500 TEU of capacity added to the market through the delivery of new vessels.

The previous record was in 2018 with 311 700 TEU.

Emily Stausbøll said: “At the end of last year there were big questions being asked about what these new ships would be doing given the levels of demand.

That has been partly answered due to the situation in the Red Sea, but there is still plenty of capacity in the market and more ships are scheduled to introduced during the rest of this year.

“With an expected 2.3 million TEU to be introduced in 2024, the problem of overcapacity is not going away for carriers.”

UPDATE: Air cargo rates from India to Northeast US increase 40%

Friday, 8 March 2024

The general air cargo spot rate from India to Northeast US had increased nearly 40% compared to the start of this year. In the week ending 3 March, the rate stood at USD 3.40 per kg.

Wenwen, Xeneta Airfreight Analyst, said: “Demand on this corridor appears to have peaked two weeks ago so I do have some doubts about whether this momentum will continue.

“Airlines are also set to announce their summer schedules at the end of March which will see belly capacity increase on the trade between India and US and put downward pressure on rates.”

UPDATE: Question marks over ocean freight reliability amid alliance shake-up

Thursday, 7 March 2024

TPM24 took place in California this week and the make-up and services offered by alliances was a popular topic for discuss. In particular, the new Gemini Alliance (Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk) and the target for 90% service reliability.

Emily Stausbøll, Xeneta Market Analyst, said: “A year ago, before the Red Sea crisis, Maersk’s global service reliability was 57.5% and Hapag-Lloyd was 50.9%.

“Both carriers now have a service reliability of 45.5%, which means there is a significant improvement required to get anywhere close to the 90% target.

“Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd are not alone because global schedule reliability across all carriers hasn’t risen above 70% since July 2020. So shippers will need some convincing that the Gemini Alliance will be able to achieve these levels of reliability, especially if they are asked to pay more for it.”

UPDATE: Air cargo market volumes on the rise

Wednesday, 6 March 2024

The latest Xeneta data reveals the air cargo market’s strong start to the year is continuing.

Following January’s 11% growth in volumes, February saw a similarly welcome upward curve for airlines and freight forwarders with demand increasing +11% year-over-year.

In what is traditionally a slower time of year for airfreight volumes, the average global cargo spot rate in February rose +2% from the previous month to USD 2.29 per kg.

Niall van de Wouw, Xeneta Chief Airfreight Officer at Xeneta, said: “It’s a surprising start to the year from a volume perspective, and not something people would have expected, ourselves included, with demand much higher than it was a year ago. This is likely related to the Red Sea disruption, but this is not the only factor.”

View the full press release here including further quotes from Niall van de Wouw.

UPDATE: Rates on backhauls to Far East are softening

Tuesday, 5 March 2024

Spot rates on backhauls from the US and Europe to the Far East are softening.

Spot rates from North Europe to Far East hit a Red Sea crisis peak of USD 1017 per FEU on 1 February. They now stand at USD 924. Backhaul spot rates from US East Coast to Far East reached a peak of USD 879 per FEU on 7 February and now stand at USD 862.

US West Coast and Far East spot rates hit a Red Sea crisis peak of USD 925 per FEU on 1 January. They now stand at USD 892, albeit there has been a slight uptick in from USD 857 on 13 February.

Emily Stausbøll, Xeneta Market Analyst, said: "Major trades from the Far East into Europe and the US have been the main focus during the Red Sea crisis but the backhaul trades have also been impacted.

"Similarly to the fronthaul trades, spot rates on the backhauls have been softening slightly in recent weeks as everyone adjusts to the new service schedules and it seems more apparent there is enough capacity to manage this demand."

UPDATE: Rubymar sinking will heighten Red Sea concerns

Monday, 4 March 2024

It has been reported that the Rubymar cargo ship has sunk in the Red Sea two weeks after a missile attack by Houthi Militia in the Red Sea.

The ship was carrying fertilizer and is the first vessel to sink following escalation of attacks on vessels in mid-December last year.

Peter Sand, Xeneta Chief Analyst, said: “This incident demonstrates the ongoing danger for vessels transiting the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden and why the majority of ocean freight container ships are continuing to avoid the region. 

“This will do nothing to ease the concerns of ocean freight carriers, so it is likely the diversions around the Cape of Good Hope in Africa will be in place for the foreseeable future.”

UPDATE: US shippers contract negotiations will not be straightforward

Friday, 1 March 2024

The Xeneta Shipping Index (XSI®) has posted its biggest global increase in over 18 months – just days before many US shippers begin negotiations over new long-term contracts.

View the full press release here including quotes from Michael Braun, Xeneta VP of Customer Success & Solutions.

About Xeneta

Xeneta is the leading ocean and air freight rate benchmarking and market analytics platform transforming the shipping and logistics industry. Xeneta’s powerful reporting and analytics platform provides liner-shipping stakeholders the data they need to understand current and historical market behavior – reporting live on market average and low/high movements for both short and long-term contracts.

Xeneta’s data is comprised of over 400+ million contracted container and air freight rates and covers over 160,000 global ocean trade routes and over 58,000 airport-airport connections. Xeneta is a privately held company with headquarters in Oslo, Norway and regional offices in New Jersey, US and Hamburg. To learn more, please visit www.xeneta.com