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Q3 2024 Xeneta Air Deep Dive Report

XADD Summary 

Looking ahead to full Q3 growth, WTO’s Goods Trade Barometer (a composite leading indicator of world trade) stood above the 100 threshold at 103.0 in July, suggesting positive global trade momentum for Q3 2024.

 

However, the outlook remains highly uncertain due to heightened geopolitical tensions, increasing trade protectionism and shifting monetary policies. JP Morgen and S&P Global's global manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 48.8 in September, indicating contraction for the third consecutive month. Its New Export Orders subindex – a bellwether for global trade – fell for the fourth straight month, at its lowest level in 11 months.

 

On the other hand, semiconductor sales, which serve as a barometer for manufacturing activities in high-tech industries and are primarily shipped by air, remain buoyant. Driven by AI computing demand, the growth momentum of global semiconductor sales stayed positive in July, up 18% year-on-year in line with its year-to-date growth (source: WSTS). It should be noted the growth has slowed down from May’s peak of 23%.

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