The global economy is heading towards a dark and unknown territory as we get ready to welcome the new year. Amidst the cost-of-living crisis, Xeneta experts anticipate negative demand for dry containers in 2023. High inflation and energy prices will eat into western consumers' purchasing power, leaving less money to spend on containerized imported goods.
As congestion eases across the globe and the increasing pace of new build ships feeding into the market, we might face a problem with over capacity.
Tune in to the latest episode of our flagship State of the Ocean Market webinar to hear what you should take away from 2022 to best prepare for a strong 2023!
Note: Xeneta customers are invited to join the upcoming exclusive customer session. To learn more, please visit your 'Xeneta Customer Hub.'
Key Webinar Takeaways:
- 2023 rates & trends outlook
- Current freight rates across major trade lanes
- Managing supplier relationships in a weak market
- How will high capacity (with easing congestion & new builds) impact rates?
- Navigating a looming recession and sliding demand
Current freight rates across major trade lanes
The transpacific head haul trade has seen the most drama. There is a decline in the pace of dropping rates, and we see an uptick in the middle of the month when new spot rates start to come in the second half of November. There is a significant fall of $6,000 from $8,000 to $2,000.
Shippers are enjoying this decline, but it is painful for carriers. However, they're still earning a lot of money. Xeneta platform users can look at the carrier spread to reflect on how different carriers' acted during this time to understand who was pushing for the top rates and who was chasing the volumes.
We've seen huge amounts of capacity being blanked from this trade which might be one of the factors helping rates go up again, according to Xeneta experts. carriers' discretion could be another factor as they are willing to offer loss-making rates in the short term. However, it is not a sustainable solution in the long term.
On the long-term market, we are slowly seeing a fall in the average rate being paid by all shippers. So the average of all long-term contracts value is slowly coming down now.
Peter Sand, Xeneta chief analyst and Emily Stausbøll, market analyst at Xeneta, shed light on how low the new long-term contracts could come in for 2023, while discussing the current gap between spot and long-term markets.
In November 2022, we saw the earnings releases from Target, the major American retailer, stating lower sales numbers and profits in Q3.
However, shortly after, we witnessed that the US retail sales were still in positive territory, up 1.3% year on year amidst inflation, which is still ongoing at 7.7% in October, down from 9.1% earlier in the year. However, American consumers may not buy as ferociously as they were just several months ago or just last year.
With the higher cost of living crisis, retail sales and growth are currently driven by food and gas sales compared to the end of 2020 and 2021, where retail goods imported across the Trans-Pacific were driving higher retail sales.
However, as evident from the flat container imports on the US West Coast and US East Coast, containerized goods are no longer driving growth.
Transpacific trade remains the most profitable trade in the market. When all other trades are falling apart in terms of carrier profitability, this one is helping carriers make good money.
But we can also see that the capacity deployed on this trade is now increasing. Xeneta experts suggest closely monitoring this trade for future developments.
2023 rates & trends outlook
During the webinar, Peter and Emily shared key trends that will help shape the market for next year in the short and long-term market, including the increasing pace of new build ships feeding into the market.
As congestion is easing across the globe, almost an equal amount of capacity might be added to the market from the Far East Asian shipyards. Among other key market trends in container ship contracting, October also witnessed carriers and investors ordering more new ships for future delivery.
Carriers ordered large methanol-fueled ship
Supply of container shipping capacity
Demand for transport
Want to learn More?
Watch the full webinar on-demand to start your journey toward data, not gut, -driven decisions, and empower your ocean freight procurement.
Note: Xeneta customers are invited to join the upcoming exclusive customer session. To learn more, please visit your 'Xeneta Customer Hub.'
